"What are these figures? Simple: to win the Scudetto, the goals conceded must be between 20 and 25. To return to the top European spots, a minimum of 74 points is needed. Releasing these figures publicly is an act of courage because it sets a bar that, if not met, leaves one open to criticism. These are the sort of tables that coaches normally try to avoid, as they are classic traps."
"In the meantime, however, a projection can certainly be made, starting from the current data. Milan have 17 points (up three from a year ago). Maintaining this average (2.1 per game), they would end the season with 81 points: 80.7, to be precise. That's well above Max's 74. Considering the minimum goal of fourth place and looking at the final standings of the last five seasons, it would be more than enough:"
"Speaking of which, Milan have conceded just six goals this season through eight games. Maintaining this average, they would end the season with 28.5. So, according to Allegri's thinking, that is too many. Again considering the previous five seasons, the data partially supports him: in 2024-25, Napoli won the league with 27 goals allowed, and in 2023-24, Inter with 22."
Massimiliano Allegri set two numerical targets for AC Milan: concede between 20 and 25 goals to contend for the Scudetto, and reach a minimum of 74 points to return to the Champions League spots. Publicly revealing those figures raises the performance bar and invites scrutiny. Current form shows Milan on 17 points after eight games, averaging 2.1 points per match, which projects to about 80.7 points over a season. Defensive numbers show six goals conceded so far, projecting to roughly 28.5 by season end, a figure Allegri considers too high compared with recent title-winning defenses.
Read at SempreMilan
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