"Well that's just exactly what Tesla is doing 😂What they will find is that it's easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution."
"You're right. The actual time from when FSD sort of works to where it is much safer than a human is several years. The legacy car companies won't design the cameras and AI computers into their cars at scale until several years after that. So this is maybe a competitive..."
NVIDIA announced Alpamayo, an AI system aimed at accelerating autonomous driving development and capable of navigating real-world roads. Alpamayo appears as a potential competitor to Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) given its AI-based approach. Achieving roughly 99% performance on common driving scenarios is relatively straightforward, while addressing the long-tail of rare, complex edge cases presents a far greater technical challenge. Moving from a system that 'sort of works' to one demonstrably much safer than a human is expected to require several years. Legacy automakers are likely to lag in integrating cameras and AI compute at scale, creating a temporal competitive window.
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