Since ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, fears of AI-driven destruction of white-collar work have grown. Goldman Sachs economists report that the job-worker mismatch, a measure of labor market stress, has improved and is now below its pre-pandemic level. The improvement is attributed to AI itself, but findings differ across studies. New York Fed economists find little link between overall AI exposure and declining job postings, and note that drops in postings for high-exposure roles began before ChatGPT. The difference stems from methodology: Goldman separates AI that replaces workers from AI that assists them, while the New York Fed uses an aggregate exposure measure. This affects whether congestion appears to be easing or rerouting toward future bottlenecks.
"Goldman Sachs economists have a surprising update. The mismatch between workers and available jobs-a key barometer of labor market stress-has actually improved since that moment, falling below its pre-pandemic level. The traffic jam, in other words, is clearing. The reason, paradoxically, is AI itself."
"The Goldman finding doesn't go unchallenged. Economists at the New York Fed published their own analysis the same day, concluding that overall AI exposure shows little link to declining job postings-and the drop in postings for high-exposure roles actually predated ChatGPT entirely. The two camps aren't so much contradicting each other as standing at different points on the same highway, describing what kind of snarl they see."
"Goldman separates AI that replaces workers from AI that assists them, whereas the NY Fed treats exposure as a single, aggregate measure. Goldman is looking at which specific lanes are emptying and why. The NY Fed is measuring overall congestion, and finding it no worse than before. That methodological choice drives very different conclusions about whether the labor market is moving freely or quietly rerouting in ways that will bottleneck further ahead."
""Our occupation-level mismatch index has declined from its 2022 peak and is now slightly below its pre-pandemic level," they wrote, before offering a warning about what comes next."
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