"If there's one thing that definitely feels like it needs correcting over and over, it's the idea that Michael Harris II has declined consistently since his rookie year. He hasn't, but his results have. Harris won the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year award with 4.7 fWAR in 441 PAs... because he outhit his .335 xwOBA by an egregious amount. Only 12 other hitters with more PAs than Harris outhit their xwOBA by more that year. In 2023, his xwOBA went up but the wOBA went down, so 3.7 fWAR in 539 PAs."
"2024 was an injury-marked campaign with a huge xwOBA under performance - the fourth-biggest in baseball, as if to somehow pay him back for 2022. And then, we all know what happened in 2025 - whether for team-driven approach reasons (probably, yes) or otherwise, he had a career-worst season, producing at a below-average rate for the first time in his four-year career."
Michael Harris II earned 2022 NL Rookie of the Year with 4.7 fWAR across 441 plate appearances, buoyed by a large overperformance relative to a .335 xwOBA. In 2023 his xwOBA rose while wOBA dropped, producing 3.7 fWAR in 539 PAs. The 2024 season was limited by injury and featured one of the largest xwOBA underperformances in baseball. In 2025 he produced a career-worst, posting below-average results for the first time in four seasons. Harris remains under contract through 2030 with escalating salaries and club options for 2031 and 2032.
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