Bitcoin Could Hit $2.9 Million By 2050, New Report Says

Models project Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050 in a base-case (15% CAGR), assuming 5–10% capture of global trade and 2.5% of central bank balance sheets. A conservative scenario yields roughly $130,000 by 2050 (2% CAGR), while a hyper-bitcoinization outcome could reach $53.4 million (29% CAGR) if BTC captures 20% of global trade and 10% of domestic GDP. Bitcoin functions as a strategic, low-correlation asset for institutional portfolios. Typical recommended allocations are 1–3% for diversified investors, with allocations up to 20% historically optimizing returns for higher risk-tolerant investors. Modeled annualized volatility ranges 40–70%, while recent realized volatility reached about 27%; futures leverage is cited as a driver of short-term price swings. It could serve as a reserve asset and hedge against monetary debasement amid high sovereign debt.

"The report, authored by VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, models BTC reaching $2.9 million per coin by 2050 under a base-case scenario. This represents a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from today's prices. The model assumes BTC captures 5-10% of global trade and becomes a reserve asset making up 2.5% of central bank balance sheets."

"VanEck recommends a 1-3% allocation for most diversified portfolios. For higher risk-tolerant investors, allocations up to 20% historically optimize returns, according to their analysis. VanEck argues that BTC's role is becoming more than speculative. It could function as a reserve asset and hedge against monetary debasement, particularly as developed markets face high sovereign debt. "The risk of zero exposure to the most established non-sovereign reserve asset may now exceed the volatility risk of the position itself," the report notes."

Read at Bitcoin Magazine