Broadcom (AVGO) Is Trading 25% Below Its Recent High: Here's Why $454 Is the 12-Month Price Target
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Broadcom (AVGO) Is Trading 25% Below Its Recent High: Here's Why $454 Is the 12-Month Price Target
"Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue has followed a straight line upward across every reported quarter: $4.1B in Q1 FY2025, $4.4B in Q2, $5.2B in Q3, and $6.2B guided for Q4. For Q1 FY2026, management guided AI semiconductor revenue to double year-over-year to $8.2 billion, driven by custom AI accelerators and Ethernet AI switches. This is not a one-quarter spike - it is eleven consecutive quarters of AI semiconductor growth with acceleration intact."
"Broadcom generated $7.47 billion in free cash flow in Q4 FY2025 alone, with FCF growing sequentially every quarter of fiscal 2025: $6.01B, $6.41B, $7.02B, and $7.47B. Adjusted EBITDA margins held at 68% of revenue. At the current price, this cash generation capacity is being priced as if growth is decelerating - it is not. Management's decision to raise the quarterly dividend 10% to $0.65 per share in December signals internal confidence in sustaining this trajectory."
"The consensus analyst price target stands at $454.43, with 48 buy or strong buy ratings and zero sell ratings among tracked analysts. The average 12-month target has recently increased to $451.25. Even the forward P/E at current prices implies the market is discounting the AI revenue ramp that Broadcom's own guidance has already quantified."
Broadcom trades at $314.46, down 9.14% year-to-date despite strong fundamentals. AI semiconductor revenue shows consistent acceleration across eleven consecutive quarters, growing from $4.1B in Q1 FY2025 to $6.2B guided for Q4, with Q1 FY2026 projected to double year-over-year to $8.2B. Free cash flow strengthened sequentially throughout fiscal 2025, reaching $7.47B in Q4 with 68% adjusted EBITDA margins maintained. Management's 10% dividend increase signals confidence in sustained growth trajectory. Analyst consensus price target of $454.43 reflects 48 buy ratings with zero sell ratings, implying the current pullback undervalues the company's quantified AI revenue expansion.
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