"The macro factor that will matter most for BKCH in 2026 is corporate Bitcoin adoption. Prediction markets assign a 59% probability that another S&P 500 company will add Bitcoin to its balance sheet by year-end 2026. That matters because BKCH holds a 12% position in Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN), which benefits directly from institutional trading volume and custody fees. Broader corporate adoption validates the entire blockchain infrastructure thesis underpinning the ETF's mining-heavy portfolio."
"These announcements tend to cluster, creating momentum that lifts both Bitcoin prices and blockchain infrastructure equities. The last wave of corporate adoption in 2024 demonstrated how quickly sentiment can shift when household names enter the space. Bitcoin mining difficulty ended 2025 at a record 148.2 trillion and continues climbing. Higher difficulty means BKCH's mining-heavy holdings like Bitmine Immersion Technologies (13% of assets), Iren Ltd ( NASDAQ:IREN) (10.9%), and Applied Digital ( NASDAQ:APLD) (8.7%) need more computing power and electricity to earn the same Bitcoin rewards."
BKCH returned 31.6% year-to-date in 2025 while many individual miners declined. Bitcoin trades just above $87,000, down 16.5% from a November peak of $105,316 but still positive for the year. Prediction markets place a 59% probability on another S&P 500 company adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet by year-end 2026. BKCH holds a 12% stake in Coinbase, which benefits from institutional trading and custody fees. Clustered corporate treasury announcements can rapidly lift Bitcoin and blockchain infrastructure equities. Rising mining difficulty, at a record 148.2 trillion, increases energy and hardware needs and stretches payback periods well beyond 1,000 days.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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