"In 1999, stock buyers had a cornucopia of new options as U.S. companies went public at a near-record clip. The crop included names like Nvidia and BlackRock that, for those who purchased them on the first day of trading, have delivered spectacular long-term returns. Now the IPO market is heating up again. While 2026 will almost certainly not match the banner year of 1999, which saw 476 companies go public, investors should have far more choices than they did four years ago,"
"Those likely to debut this year include the giants SpaceX and OpenAI. "We're going to see some companies go public that are going to be defining the American technology and economic landscape for the next decade," says Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital. All of this is enticing for investors hoping to get in early on the next Microsoft or Google. But, as history shows, there is plenty to give pause to those looking to pounce on first-day share offerings."
"Jay Ritter is a soft-spoken emeritus professor at the University of Florida who has acquired the nickname "Mr. IPO" for his exhaustive research on initial public offerings. His data shows that new offerings go on to beat the overall market in some years, but in other years the opposite is true-particularly in years that produce a bumper crop of IPOs."
1999 produced a large number of IPOs, including Nvidia and BlackRock, which delivered exceptional long-term returns for first-day buyers. The IPO market is expanding again, and 2026 should offer many more listings than four years ago, when only 38 firms went public. Potential high-profile debuts include SpaceX and OpenAI. Some expect new public companies to shape the American technology and economic landscape for the next decade. Historical research shows that large IPO years can produce weak average returns: the 1999 class posted three-year returns of -48% measured from first-day closes. High-volume IPO years like 2021 provide additional cautionary examples.
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