"Tesla has taken the rather unusual step of officially publishing its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on the Investor Relations site. As per analyst estimates, Tesla is expected to deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems this Q4 2025. By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results, making it harder for narratives to claim a "miss" based on outlier estimates."
"Tesla's IR press release detailed the consensus from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy deployments. As per the release, full-year 2025 consensus delivery estimates come in at 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2025's FY deliveries of 1,789,226 cars. Tesla noted that while it "does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts," its press release does provide a notable reference point."
"Tesla seems to be pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible before the end of 2025, despite the company's future seemingly being determined not by vehicle deliveries, but FSD and Optimus' rollout and ramp. Still, reports from countries such as China are optimistic, with posts on social media hinting that Tesla's delivery centers in the country are appearing packed as the final weeks of 2025 unfold."
Tesla published its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on its Investor Relations site, reporting expectations of 422,850 vehicle deliveries and 13.4 GWh of battery storage deployments for Q4. The consensus aggregates inputs from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy, with a full-year 2025 delivery consensus of 1,640,752 vehicles—an 8.3% decline from 2025's FY deliveries of 1,789,226. The list of contributing firms includes major investment banks and brokerages. Tesla stated it does not endorse analysts' conclusions but presented the numbers as a reference point. Reports indicate a heavy late-year delivery push, with China showing strong Model Y and Model 3 performance.
Read at TESLARATI
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