Vistra's 2026 Guidance Reinforces Its Multi-Year Growth Path

"Vistra's core business is performing at a level that justifies management's confidence. The record Adjusted EBITDA, locked-in long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscale technology buyers, and a ~30% reduction in share count since November 2021 through roughly $5.9 billion in buybacks paint a picture of a management team allocating capital with conviction."

"The risks worth watching are real: interest expense climbed to $1.18 billion in 2025 from $900 million in 2024, and the pending Cogentrix acquisition of roughly 5,500 MW adds integration complexity. The Moss Landing battery incident also resulted in a $155 million impairment in the Asset Closure segment."

"With approximately 100% of 2026 generation already hedged and multi-decade contracts with AWS and Meta anchoring the nuclear portfolio, investors should focus on Cogentrix integration progress and whether 2026 Adjusted EBITDA tracks toward the top of the guidance range as the key signals for the year ahead."

Vistra delivered record full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $5.91 billion, surpassing original guidance midpoint by approximately $112 million. While GAAP results were impacted by $808 million in non-cash unrealized commodity hedging losses, underlying operational performance demonstrates consistent execution and accelerating growth. The company has secured long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscale technology buyers and reduced share count by approximately 30% since November 2021 through $5.9 billion in buybacks. Key risks include rising interest expense, which increased to $1.18 billion in 2025 from $900 million in 2024, and integration complexity from the pending Cogentrix acquisition of 5,500 MW. A $155 million impairment resulted from the Moss Landing battery incident. With 100% of 2026 generation hedged and multi-decade contracts with AWS and Meta supporting the nuclear portfolio, focus should remain on Cogentrix integration and 2026 Adjusted EBITDA performance.

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