Monday.com shares fell amid concerns that declining SEO-driven traffic and rising marketing costs could depress self-serve growth. Bank of America Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and lowered the price target to $205 from $240. SEO-driven visits dropped 23.5% year-over-year in Q2 2025 and fell 25.3% in July, likely linked to Google's AI Overviews rollout. With less than 30% of signups coming from Google, Similarweb data was used to model impact. Continued traffic declines could reduce 2026 self-serve gross ARR additions by 5.2%, trimming about two percentage points from total gross ARR added. Shares traded near $171.
He noted that SEO-driven visits fell 23.5% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2025, with the decline worsening to 25.3% in July, likely due to Google's broader rollout of AI Overviews. Since less than 30% of signups come from Google, he built a framework using Similarweb data to gauge growth impact. Bullock said that while shares are already down 30% since the second quarter earnings, ongoing fundamental challenges and AI-driven search risks make risk/reward balanced.
The analyst is not calling for a 2025 revenue guide miss but trimmed 2026 revenue estimates and cut his price target to $205 from $240. Bullock warned that if July 2025 traffic declines persist, Monday.com could see meaningful self-serve headwinds in the second half of 2025 and 2026. Extending July's traffic trends forward, Bullock's analysis implies a 5.2% decline in self-serve gross ARR added in 2026, translating to about a 2-point drag on total gross ARR added for that year.
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