California Governor's Race Is Turning Into a Three-Way Fight

The 2026 California governor’s race began with a large field of weakly competitive candidates under the non-partisan top-two primary system. Democrats feared a Republican lockout in which GOP candidates could finish first and second, blocking the majority party from winning. The race shifted after Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton and after Eric Swalwell exited following sexual misconduct allegations and resignation from Congress. Xavier Becerra gained support after Swalwell’s departure, while Tom Steyer increased spending with a large self-funded ad campaign. A tracking poll taken May 14–16 shows Hilton and Becerra tied at 22%, with Steyer at 15%, Bianco at 11%, Porter at 6%, and Mahan at 4%.

"The 2026 California governor's race started off quiet and rather boring, with a big field of too many lackluster Democrats and a couple of lackluster Republicans competing in the state's non-partisan top-two primary system. It began to heat up as Democrats grew to fear a Republican "lockout," in which GOP candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco might finish first and second, denying California's majority party any chance at the governorship."

"Then last month, the contest was totally upended. First Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, dampening GOP lockout hopes. Then Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell 's campaign imploded over sexual misconduct allegations, leading him to quit the race and then resign from Congress. The race was in flux just as mail ballots went out to every registered voter in the state at the beginning of May."

"With Swalwell out, former state attorney general and HHS secretary Xavier Becerra saw a big surge in support. Meanwhile, a candidate distinctly to his left, billionaire Tom Steyer, doubled-down on an incredibly lavish self-funded ad blitz. With everybody pounding Becerra in ads and debates, for the past few weeks it's been unclear how the field would shake out."

"The latest Evitarus tracking poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party, which was taken from May 14-16, has Hilton and Becerra tied for the lead, each with 22 percent of the vote. Below them we have Steyer at 15 percent; Bianco at 11 percent; Katie Porter at six percent; Matt Mahan at four percent; and other candidates with negligible support."

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