The scaled-down Central Valley high-speed rail segment between Merced and Bakersfield is projected to be unprofitable when service begins as early as 2032, with revenues covering only 45% to 74% of operating costs. The rail authority is pursuing extensions north to Gilroy and south to Palmdale to connect with Caltrain and MetroLink and to boost ridership and financial viability. Some alternatives would eliminate the 33-mile Merced link by routing west from Madera to Gilroy while maintaining Merced service via existing San Joaquins Amtrak connections to Sacramento and Oakland. Each extension increases costs and could delay opening to 2038.
A new report released Friday by the California High-Speed Rail Authority warns that the scaled-down Central Valley segment the only portion of the line currently under construction is unlikely to be profitable when trains begin running, as early as 2032. The report projects that revenue will cover only 45% to 74% of operating costs. Now, the rail authority is pushing to build the project beyond the 171-mile stretch between Merced and Bakersfield,
But Ian Choudri, the authority's CEO, doesn't want the project to stall out in the Central Valley. Building to the state's major population centers concurrently with the Central Valley segment could increase ridership to the point of profitability, the report indicates. We've been re-evaluating the entire program in all aspects from design and construction, to funding and financing, Choudri said in an interview with this news organization last month.
The 96-page report lays out four different alternatives to extend the line as far north as Gilroy, where it could connect to Caltrain, and south to Palmdale, where it could connect with MetroLink to Los Angeles. Some of the alternatives propose cutting the 33-mile link north to Merced, heading west to Gilroy straight from Madera to save money. Merced would still connect to Madera via the existing San Joaquins Amtrak line with terminuses in Sacramento and Oakland.
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