Did California finish 2025 with booming confidence?

The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index for California jumped 48% between November and December, marking the largest one-month increase on record and reaching a five-year high. The surge exceeded the prior record 47% upswing in April 2009. The December surge followed a year-long decline that included a 24% drop after Donald Trump's reelection, which left the index near its five-year low in November. National consumer confidence fell 4% in December to an eight-month low. State results varied widely, with Texas up 11% while Pennsylvania, Florida, New York and Michigan posted sizable declines. California's index is notably more volatile than the national benchmark; smoothing over six months produced a more modest year-end increase.

"By one measure, Californians got a surprising boost of optimism at the year's end. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index for the state took its largest one-month jump on record for December. This yardstick of shopper psyche, created by polls that run to mid-month, date to 2007. My trusty spreadsheet found the California index jumped 48% between November and December, putting the index at a five-year high."

"This jump passed the old record upswing of 47% in April 2009, when the economy was first emerging from the depths of the Great Recession. Curiously, December's record surge followed a year-long decline to November. The 24% confidence drop following Donald Trump's election to his second term put the index at its second-lowest point in five years. While these California curves were happening, nationwide confidence slipped modestly in December only 4% putting the U.S. index at an eight-month low."

"Month-to-month gyrations are rarely insightful, but giant swings are hard to miss. Conference Board economist Dana Peterson noted these state indexes have a history of statistical jumpiness. My spreadsheet used standard deviation, a geeky measurement, to learn that California's confidence index is 53% more volatile than the national benchmark. Only Texas was less jumpy, 38% above the nation. Ohio was jumpiest at 134% above the U.S. norm. Peterson noted that tracking six months of indexes can smooth out the hiccups to show clearer patterns."

Read at www.ocregister.com