Did California finish 2025 with booming confidence?

California's Conference Board monthly consumer confidence index recorded its largest one-month jump on record in December, rising 48% from November to a five-year high. The December surge surpassed the prior record 47% upswing in April 2009 as the economy emerged from the Great Recession. The jump followed a year-long decline that left the index 24% lower after Donald Trump's election to a second term. Nationwide consumer confidence slipped about 4% in December to an eight-month low, creating a notable divergence. Among eight tracked states, Texas rose 11%, while Pennsylvania, Florida, New York and Michigan posted double-digit declines. State indexes show higher volatility than the national benchmark.

"By one measure, Californians got a surprising boost of optimism at the year's end. The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index for the state took its largest one-month jump on record for December. This yardstick of shopper psyche, created by polls that run to mid -month, date to 2007. My trusty spreadsheet found the California index jumped 48% between November and December, putting the index at a five-year high."

"This jump passed the old record upswing of 47% in April 2009, when the economy was first emerging from the depths of the Great Recession. Curiously, December's record surge followed a year-long decline to November. The 24% confidence drop following Donald Trump's election to his second term put the index at its second-lowest point in five years. While these California curves were happening, nationwide confidence slipped modestly in December - only 4% - putting the U.S. index at an eight-month low. Clearly, an eye-catching divide."

"Conference Board economist Dana Peterson noted these state indexes have a history of statistical jumpiness. My spreadsheet used standard deviation, a geeky measurement, to learn that California's confidence index is 53% more volatile than the national benchmark. Only Texas was less jumpy, 38% above the nation. Ohio was jumpiest at 134% above the U.S. norm. Peterson noted that tracking six months of indexes can smooth out the hiccups to show clearer patterns."

Read at The Mercury News