A California redistricting measure could give Democrats several congressional seats in 2026 and increase the party's odds of retaking control of the House. A poll found 57% of voters backed the measure, 35% opposed and 8% undecided, up from 51% support in July. Democratic voters show about 84% support while Republican voters show about 79% opposition. Voter support depends on framing: support falls when described as eliminating the independent commission, but rises by double digits when described as allowing temporary maps triggered by partisan action elsewhere while retaining the commission. A failed proposition could weaken Newsom ahead of a potential 2028 bid.
Democrats are almost fully united in their support, with 84% in support and 13% opposed.
Voter trends on this measure closely mirror the presidential election results of November 2024, in which Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump in California by 58% to 38%. Poll results indicate that Proposition 50 will fall along similar partisan lines," Binder concluded.
When voters hear that Proposition 50 allows new maps to be designed on a temporary basis, triggered by partisan action in other state such as Texas, and retains the independent redistricting commission, they support the measure by a double-digit margin," Binder wrote.
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