"There are nine Democrats running for governor with various degrees of seriousness. There are only two major Republican contenders, plus a third lagging practically out of sight. Remember, California has a top two open primary. The top two vote-getters, regardless of their party, advance to the November election. And only the top two."
"In the primary, about 60% of voters will choose a Democrat, political data expert Paul Mitchell figures. That number of voters split among nine Democratic candidates could result in all sharing smaller pieces of the pie than what the top two Republicans receive. Mitchell estimates nearly 40% of voters will side with a Republican, with just two candidates splitting most of the smaller GOP pie."
California's gubernatorial race faces a structural problem: nine Democratic candidates competing in a top-two primary system could inadvertently help Republicans win the governorship. With approximately 60% of voters expected to support Democrats but their votes divided among nine candidates, each receives a smaller share than the consolidated Republican vote split between only two major candidates. This mathematical disadvantage could result in two Republicans advancing to November instead of a Democrat and Republican, despite Democrats comprising 45% of registered voters compared to 25% Republicans. Party leaders and trailing candidates should consider withdrawing to consolidate Democratic support and prevent a Republican victory.
#california-gubernatorial-race #primary-election-strategy #vote-splitting #democratic-consolidation #top-two-primary-system
Read at www.mercurynews.com
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