Seiya Suzuki Is (And Always Has Been) Very Streaky, But There Is One Difference This Time - Bleacher Nation

Seiya Suzuki is producing a .269/.369/.455 slash line with a 132 wRC+ this season, slightly above his career average, supported by a better-than-normal walk rate and only a slightly higher strikeout rate. May has been much colder, with a .209/.308/.343 line and 81 wRC+, similar to other Cubs hitters. His performance has long been streaky, with months of major offensive surges followed by extended cold stretches. The main driver is volatility in his barrel rate, while other underlying metrics remain broadly consistent. The key concern is an elevated out-of-zone swing rate, especially in May, since he typically does not chase.

"Overall, this season, Seiya Suzuki is hitting quite well. He's got a .269/.369/.455 slash line, equating to a 132 wRC+, which is just above his career average, with a better-than-normal walk rate and an only slightly higher strikeout rate. However, with the exception of a couple multi-hit games against the Brewers, he's been ice cold in May: .209/.308/.343 (81 wRC+). Kinda like all the Cubs hitters."

"But UNLIKE some of the other ice-cold Cubs hitters, I'm not quite as concerned about Seiya Suzuki the rest of the season, because ... this is just who he is: a very, very streaky hitter. You can argue whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but I think we tend to be happy with his overall production by the end of the year. And to that end, this streakiness is nothing new."

"Indeed, it's been the case throughout his career, with months of massive offensive explosions followed by nuclear cold offensive winters: Cold (<75) Below avg (75-99) Average (100-124) Above avg (125-149) Elite (150+) Each bar = one calendar month. Dashed line = career average (127 wRC+). Source: FanGraphs. So what exactly is going on during the streakiness?"

"Well, the biggest underlying explanation is the volatility in his barrel rate. His career average is solid, but when you look at the data, there are similarly notable peaks and valleys. But at the end of the day, a few of his other key underlying statistics look ... pretty much like they always do. Line Drive Rate: Groundball Rate: Bat Speed: There is one concerning number, however, that's up this year and especially in May, which will be the big thing to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. And that's his out-of-zone swing rate."

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