The 2025-26 Premier League season in alternative tables

Expected points are calculated by comparing the quality of goalscoring chances a team creates and the quality of chances it concedes in every match. The metric estimates what a team’s points total would have been based on those chance qualities. This provides an indicator of whether attacking and defensive performance was genuinely strong or whether results deviated from underlying performance. Sunderland is identified as a major outlier, with expected points implying relegation despite actual survival. Aston Villa is also placed in the bottom half by expected points, while Chelsea is placed in a Champions League position. The data also examines home versus away performance, including Tottenham’s relatively poor home results compared with away points.

"Expected points (xPTS) are useful for football analysts because they can serve as a decent indicator of whether a team over or under-performed across the course of a season. Expected points are calculated by comparing the quality of goalscoring chances a team makes (xG) and concedes (xGA) in every match throughout the campaign, and shows what the impact would have been on the team's points total. In theory, it measures how genuinely strong a team's attacking and defensive performance was."

"There are a few real outliers on xPTS, the most notable being Sunderland, who would have been relegated had they earned the amount of points they 'should' have done, according to the data. Aston Villa would also have finished in the bottom half, while Chelsea would have qualified for the Champions League. Maybe keep an eye on whether Sunderland and Villa fall off massively next season if you fancy figuring out once and for all whether 'expected' data is truly insightful or a heap of hogwash."

"Time for a classic of the alternative league table genre now. Who has built themselves a fortress at home? Who gets travel sick on long journeys? Let's find out. The most striking difference here is Tottenham, who seemingly could hardly bear the thought of playing in front of their own fans, but earned enough points on the road to qualify for the Europa League if only"

Read at www.bbc.com