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"In late August, the website put out its map and its coming predictions using what it calls a "refined data model that depends on a combination of factors, including historical temperature and precipitation, forecast temperature and precipitation, the type of tree known to be prominent in that geographic region, the historical trends in that area," along with something extra: user data. In 2022, the website introduced the ability for users to provide real-time leaf reports, which update the current year and inform future models."
""While meteorology is most accurate immediately before an event, a forecast is more useful to travelers and end users when made in advance. With our unique blend of historical and forecast data, we are able to make a highly accurate prediction by the end of August.""
SmokyMountains.com released a predictive fall foliage map in late August using a refined data model that depends on historical and forecast temperature and precipitation, prominent tree species, and regional historical trends, plus user-submitted leaf reports. The site added real-time leaf reporting in 2022 to update current-year conditions and inform future models. Meteorological factors—temperature, moisture, sunlight, and precipitation—form the backbone of predictions, which are most accurate close to events but are produced in advance for traveler usefulness. The map is rebuilt yearly with new data to reflect drastic year-to-year changes and includes a slider to view week-to-week color changes.
Read at Travel + Leisure
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