US plan to exploit Venezuela's oil could eat up 13% of carbon budget to keep 1.5C limit

"US plans to exploit Venezuela's oil reserves could by 2050 consume more than a tenth of the world's remaining carbon budget to limit global heating to 1.5C, according to an exclusive analysis. The calculation highlights how any moves to further exploit the South American nation's oil reserves the largest in the world, at least on paper would put increasing pressure on climate goals, and risk plunging the Earth further into climate catastrophe."

"Venezuela's proven oil reserves are so vast that if they were fully tapped, they would, by themselves, exhaust the entire carbon budget for keeping the world within the 1.5C temperature rise that climate scientists say is the limit for avoiding the worst effects of climate breakdown. Such an eventuality is unlikely. After years of sanctions, Venezuela's oil infrastructure is decrepit and crumbling."

"An analysis for the Guardian by ClimatePartner, a carbon accounting firm, modelled the carbon impact of the growth of Venezuela's oil production by +0.5m barrels per day by 2028, ramping up to +1.58m barrels per day from 2035 to 2050. Such a scenario which would still fall far short of the 3.5m barrels a day produced during Venezuela's last oil boom in the 1990s would by itself consume 13% of the total remaining carbon budget to keep global heating within 1.5C."

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, and fully tapping them would exhaust the entire remaining carbon budget for keeping warming within 1.5C. A modeled expansion of Venezuelan oil production—+0.5 million barrels per day by 2028, rising to +1.58 million bpd from 2035–2050—would consume about 13% of the 1.5C carbon budget by 2050. Venezuelan crude is a heavy, sour grade with tar-like consistency and high sulphur content, making it one of the filthiest oils and harder to produce and refine. Years of sanctions have left oil infrastructure decrepit and crumbling. Calls for large-scale investment aim to revive production despite climate risks.

Read at www.theguardian.com