A German economist developed a complex forecast model that has correctly predicted the World Cup winner since 2014. The model also projects outcomes across the 48-team tournament, including unexpected results such as Japan beating Brazil and Scotland failing to advance. It forecasts England reaching the semi-finals and Portugal eliminating England, while stopping short of predicting outcomes decided by penalties. The economist describes himself as a pessimist and says the work was intended to demonstrate the absurdity of trying to predict events that cannot be known. After early correct predictions, people began treating the model as unbeatable, even though success may reflect luck and systemic factors like population, wealth, climate, and FIFA rankings.
"“This started as an exercise in showing the world a hubris of economists who think they can forecast stuff that they actually have no clue about,” Klement said. “And now it's become an exercise in how, if you're lucky often enough, people will think you're a guru.”"
"“Because I was right three times in a row, people now think that this model is unbeatable and that I obviously will have to be right as well next time,” he said. It is true that World Cup success is partly determined by known “systemic” factors, such as national population, wealth, climate and Fifa world rankings."
"The Netherlands would become the fourth of four predicted winners to fulfil Klement's statistical prophecy if they lift the trophy in July. As well as the winners, his model maps out the breadth of the 48-team tournament - from a surprise win for Japan against Brazil in the second round to Scotland's failure to progress from the group stage."
"England are due to make it to the semi-finals, with Portugal poised to knock them out two decades after they did in 2006 - though the model stops short of foretelling 'penalties, again'."
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