"He ended up pitching 125 2/3 innings with a 61 ERA-, 67 FIP-, and 73 xFIP-. His xERA was in the same range, somewhere between his FIP and xFIP. He put up 3.6 fWAR, which comes out to 5.7 fWAR per 200 innings, or about 5.1 fWAR per 30 starts. Any other multiplier you accurately use to account for time lost ends up somewhere in that range."
"That said, there's no guarantee that Sale would've pitched to his FIP-based rate. After all, his xFIP was a bit worse than his FIP. But, on the other hand, he was so good last year (6.4 fWAR in 177 2/3 innings, with a 66 xFIP- that was still scintillating even if it was higher than his 53 FIP-), that my own quick projection math suggests that straightlining his known 2025 performance out to additional frames or starts isn't unreasonable."
Chris Sale suffered a rib injury after making a diving play and therefore missed substantial 2025 time. He pitched 125 2/3 innings with a 61 ERA-, 67 FIP-, 73 xFIP- and produced 3.6 fWAR. Scaling that rate yields roughly 5.7 fWAR per 200 innings or about 5.1 fWAR per 30 starts. His xERA fell between his FIP and xFIP, introducing some uncertainty about rate stability. Sale had posted 6.4 fWAR in 177 2/3 innings the prior year. Paul Skenes finished 2025 with 6.5 fWAR across 187 2/3 innings and 32 starts.
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