"With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the season on fire. While it is not his best start to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it still puts him three goals ahead in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot. The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive."
"Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the award so early. First, the number of goals he has already scored - and, just as importantly, the number and quality of chances he is getting. And second, the slow start his usual rivals for the prize have made."
"A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has historically scored from the number and quality of chances he has had. It is not a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history. And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from normal play, the Norway forward is getting so many more good opportunities to score than anyone else."
Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in his first seven Premier League matches this season, none from penalties. He remains three goals clear in the early Golden Boot race despite recording better seven-game starts previously. The striker is receiving a far higher volume and quality of chances than any other player, reflected in his 29 shots—12 more than the next player—and an average non-penalty shot xG of 0.27. Even with an identical finishing rate to his peers, his chance profile would project more than double the goals of other players. A slow start from typical rivals and the possibility of injury are significant factors.
Read at www.bbc.com
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