A Norstat poll of 15,200 voters for NRK conducted in mid-to-late August indicates a narrow 88-81 seat lead for the red-green bloc. The slim majority would allow Jonas Gahr Stre and Labour to stay in office only if both the Red Party and the Green Party (MDG) secure representation and enter a confidence agreement. The Green Party is close to the four percent parliamentary threshold required for representation, making its result pivotal. The red-green lead amounts to fewer than 100,000 votes, about 3 percent of the electorate. Regional splits show southern and western Norway leaning toward change while eastern districts favor the current coalition. The far-right Progress Party is polling higher than the Conservative party, adding further uncertainty to government formation.
Conducted by Norstat on behalf of NRK between mid and late August, the poll asked 15,200 voters from all on Norway's electoral districts how they would vote if the election were held today. The results indicate a slender 88-81 seat majority for the red-green bloc, meaning that if all the parties on the left of centre agreed to support Jonas Gahr Stre and the Labour party to continue in office, this group would take a narrow win.
The poll forecasts that Stre will remain in office, but only if both the Red Party and the Green Party (MDG) secure representation. The need for a confidence agreement with these parties, whose policies differ significantly from Labour on a number of areas, could complicate talks to form a new government after the election. Another crucial element is the fact that the Green Party is hovering around the parliamentary threshold
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