Transfers were expected to decide the election from the start of the campaign. Jim Gavin's withdrawal has turned the race into a straight head-to-head between Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. Fianna Fáil voters' ballots could therefore be decisive. A Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll modeled how Gavin's transfers might redistribute during a campaign. The poll found the final contest could be extremely close, projecting a narrow 53-47 split in favour of Catherine Connolly over Heather Humphreys. The outcome hinges on how Gavin supporters allocate their preferences.
"Fianna Fáil voters' ballots may decide outcome following their candidate's exit"
"Since the start of the campaign it was assumed transfers would decide this election - but with Jim Gavin gone, the two remaining candidates are in a straight shootout."
"The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll at the weekend explored how Gavin's transfers would evolve over the course of a campaign, deducing that the tie would be as close as 53-47 favouring Catherine Connolly over Heather Humphreys."
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