"OPINION - Following Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Vladimir Putin expected a swift victory from his "special military operation." Instead, it is Kyiv now conducting special air campaigns against Russia's oil and gas industry. Ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the war's costs more directly and the pressure on the Kremlin is growing. Since late 2023, Ukraine has unleashed a drone offensive, targeting Russian oil refineries."
"By 2025, Ukraine had built an extensive fleet of long-range drones and put them to use, Russian oil, hitting Moscow where it hurts most. Kyiv believes these to be "kinetic sanctions," since the West has been hesitant to target Russian oil for years. And for Putin, fuel prices are politically dangerous. Since early August, Ukraine has carried out more than a dozen strikes on Russian oil refineries, knocking out as much as 20% of refining capacity - over 1 million barrels a day."
Ukraine mounted a drone offensive since late 2023 that targets Russian oil refineries and by 2025 built a fleet of long-range drones used to strike Russian oil infrastructure. Russia depends on oil and gas revenues to fund its war, while recruitment bonuses to sustain the conflict are straining the labor market, raising wages and inflation. A June Levada Center poll found 58% of Russians named rising prices as their top concern. Since early August, more than a dozen strikes have knocked out as much as 20% of refining capacity, forcing rationing, sharply higher wholesale petrol prices, suspended gasoline exports, long fuel lines, and stressed local finances.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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