"The Bills are coming off a loss to the Patriots, their first of the season. They are still the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +475. The Falcons defeated the the Commanders in Week 4 and had a bye last week. At 2-2, they are +190 to earn a playoff berth. The Bills opened as 4.5-point favorites but the line has been bet down to 3.5."
"Atlanta's offense can move the ball but struggles to finish drives, ranking near the bottom of the league in touchdown rate per possession. It's volume without payoff. Buffalo's defense, even with injuries, remains top 10 in opponent yards per play and red-zone stops. On the other side, Atlanta's zone-heavy defense limits explosive passes and forces opponents to play patient football."
"We just saw Buffalo grind through that kind of game against New England. If that happens again, expect more James Cook touches and designed runs for Josh Allen with fewer deep shots. Both offenses can string drives together, but neither plays fast or finishes efficiently enough to sail the over."
Monday Night Football features two games: Bills at Falcons (Bills -4.5, total 49.5) and Bears at Commanders (Commanders -4.5, total 49.5). The Bills suffered their first loss to the Patriots but remain +475 favorites for the Super Bowl; the Falcons are 2-2 after beating Washington in Week 4 and earning a bye. Betting markets moved the Bills line from -4.5 to -3.5. The Bills-Falcons projection leans UNDER 49.5 because Atlanta moves the ball but scores inefficiently while Buffalo ranks top 10 in opponent yards per play and red-zone stops. Expect more James Cook touches and designed runs for Josh Allen. A notable prop is Tyler Allgeier OVER 7.5 rush attempts, as Allgeier averages nearly 11 carries and 39 rushing yards per game despite Bijan Robinson being the offense's primary star.
Read at ESPN.com
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