"Bowl season is like betting a game of musical chairs where the music stops at kickoff. Lines are flying, rosters are leaking, coaches are packing boxes and seven-point swings show up before you've finished your coffee. Chasing steam is how a good process turns into bad bets. If you don't get the best of the number, let it go. There are more bowls, a playoff, the NFL and entire new seasons waiting. Discipline beats FOMO every time."
"The matchup and game shape cap the margin. The Chippewas are flawed, but their flaws are predictable; struggling when they fall behind fast and forced to abandon structure. That's exactly what happened in the 21-3 loss to Toledo. But Toledo is explosive, aggressive on early downs and plays with tempo. Northwestern is none of that. The Wildcats' EPA per play is 76th, which isn't a profile that consistently wins 11-point spreads. Northwestern could win but CMU can hang, especially in a low-possession, run-heavy bowl game."
Bowl season features rapidly shifting lines, roster changes, and volatile spreads that can swing before kickoff. Chasing steam undermines a disciplined betting process and leads to poor wagers; accept missing a number rather than forcing a play. Central Michigan (+10.5) presents predictable flaws and can hang with Northwestern given the Wildcats' middling EPA per play and lack of explosiveness, making the spread vulnerable. Georgia Tech (+4.5) benefits from efficient offense driven by Haynes King, while BYU relies on defensive pace control without strong separation, creating conditions where an underdog back can offer value in a compressed-possession bowl.
Read at ESPN.com
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