"In the fourth quarter and overtime, teams that commit penalties that lead to large yardage swings or first downs -- defensive holding, defensive pass interference, illegal contact and offensive pass interference -- tend to win more often than when they don't commit those penalties. Coaches' challenges have decreased by 47% since 2010. In the 2024 season, challenges led to overturned calls about 38% of the time, the lowest success rate in five years."
"To assess whether officiating is routinely impacting game outcomes, ESPN compiled every penalty that referees called in regular-season and postseason games between 2001 and 2024, the type of penalty assessed, when it occurred during the game, and which team went on to win. ESPN also compiled every challenge a head coach made in the regular season from 2010 to 2024 as noted in official NFL Game Books."
All penalties called in regular-season and postseason games from 2001 through 2024 were compiled, including penalty type, timing and the winning team. Every head coach challenge from 2010 through 2024 was compiled from official NFL Game Books. Statistical analysis found that teams penalized more often do not lose more frequently overall. In late-game situations, penalties that create large yardage swings or first downs are associated with higher win rates for the team committing them. Coaches' challenges have fallen 47% since 2010 and had a 38% overturn rate in 2024. Data did not show specific officiating crews biased against particular teams in upholding or reversing challenges.
Read at ESPN.com
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