"Although there was a lot of optimism that Mike Vrabel and Co. would make an immediate impact, the belief was that this team was a few years away from actually competing. So now that we're 16 weeks into it and the Patriots sit with a 12-3 record, a tie for the best record in the NFL, the goalposts have moved, and predictions for how their season will end are far better than anyone could have imagined."
"ESPN's projection would be a dream come true for Patriots fans The idea of the Patriots making the Super Bowl in Drake Maye's second season, and Mike Vrabel's first as the head coach, is almost unfathomable, and not because they don't have the talent or the grit to get there, but more so because this is a team that was 4-13 over the last two years."
Before the 2025 season, preseason forecasts expected the Patriots to roughly double last year's wins and, at best, contend for a wild-card spot, with many believing the roster needed years to compete. Through 16 weeks the Patriots sit 12-3, tied for the league lead, shifting expectations dramatically. ESPN ran 10,000 FPI simulations of the final three weeks and selected one projection where New England finishes 13-4, keeps the No. 2 seed via divisional tiebreakers, and advances to the Super Bowl. The scenario includes a simulated loss in Baltimore but wins over divisional opponents and a first-round matchup with the No. 7 Chargers.
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