Aidan Hutchinson tops the 2025 sack projections after five strong games before a season-ending leg injury in 2024. A statistical model forecasts veteran pass rusher sack totals using past sack totals and rates, projected snaps, pass rush win rate (PRWR) from Next Gen Stats, opponent sack rates, team win totals from the betting market, and alignment frequency between edge and interior. Inclusion requires significant prior pass-rush volume, a minimum snap projection, and excludes rookies. The model predicts mean season outcomes that incorporate the possibility of injuries and provides a ranked top-50 list plus notable forecasts and betting insights.
This is the fifth year we've run our sack forecast for veteran pass rushers. The statistical model is based on a player's past performance and his situation entering the season. The model's inputs include: Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats Past sack rates for opposing quarterbacks on each pass rusher's 2025 schedule
To be included, players must be defensive linemen or edge rushers. They also must have rushed the passer at least 150 times in one of the past two seasons, rushed the passer on at least 25% of their snaps last season and be projected to play at least 250 snaps this season. Rookies were excluded. The model forecasts the mean outcome for a player's season, and while the numbers might strike you as low, consider that this is projecting the average of all outcomes for each player -- including injuries.
Five electric games from Aidan Hutchinson before his season-ending leg injury weren't enough to earn him accolades in 2024. But those performances affect what we think of him going forward, and it's a big reason why Hutchinson tops the 2025 edition of our annual NFL sack projections.
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