"Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets."
"Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value. Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league."
"Jump to:Game bets | Offensive props Game bets Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers to go OVER 44.5 (-115) Denver Broncos at New York Jets first half UNDER 21.5 (-115) I'm not buying these international games. The tempo is sluggish. The play execution is choppy. Through five games, the Jets have failed to establish an offensive identity, while the Denver defense can heat up the p"
A value-first approach prioritizes finding profitable betting edges regardless of bet type or source. One perspective emphasizes film study and matchup-based predictions to identify positive player and team matchups and game winners. A complementary perspective uses statistical modeling to surface plus-expected-value opportunities. Weekly selections include spreads, money lines, totals and defensive player props, with results tracked using flat one-unit wagers. Odds are sourced from ESPN BET Sportsbook. Defensive prop bets will be added when available. Early Week 6 selections include Bengals-Packers over 44.5 and Broncos-Jets first-half under 21.5, with concerns noted about international-game tempo and execution.
Read at ESPN.com
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