How likely are losses in Manhattan's condo market?

"The firm analyzed over 2,500 condo resales from July 2024 and July 2025 and found that one in three units sold during that time went for a loss. Sellers who bought between 2016 and 2020 were hit the hardest, with more than half of those that sold in that last year suffering a loss. The vast majority of the more than 700 buyers from before 2010 that sold in the last year saw price appreciation."

"From 2016 to 2024, the average price per square foot for a Manhattan condo has fallen by 4 percent, according to Miller Samuel report for Douglas Elliman. I don't think the public is completely aware of the fact that housing prices in Manhattan for the last decade have been relatively flat, said report author Jonathan Miller. The extended time horizon captures several inflection points that have shaped the Manhattan market."

"From 2015 to 2016, median condo sale prices increased over 10 percent, according to Elliman's 10-year market report. There was a lot of extrinsic pressure to buy, because you had this FOMO that if you didn't buy, prices were going to run away, Antin said. That led people to make some potentially less than savvy purchase decisions. As condo projects came to market, a slew of state and local policies dampened the city's appeal for wealthy buyers."

One in three Manhattan condo resales between July 2024 and July 2025 sold at a loss. Buyers who purchased between 2016 and 2020 experienced the highest share of losses, while most sellers who bought before 2010 realized price appreciation. The average price per square foot for Manhattan condos fell about 4 percent from 2016 to 2024. A prior period of rapid growth from 2013 to 2016 created buying pressure and FOMO that led to less-sound purchases. The 2017 cap on state and local tax deductions and other local policies reduced the city's attractiveness for wealthy buyers.

Read at therealdeal.com