Scientists now warn that the year 2024 may not be an anomaly in record-breaking global temperatures, with predictions suggesting a potential breach of the 2C warming threshold by 2029. Dr. Leon Hermanson from the UK Met Office indicates there is a 1% chance of a full year exceeding 2C, which mirrors the previous underestimations about the 1.5C threshold. As climate models have evolved, they confirm that such extreme warming has moved from impossible to possible, impacting global weather patterns and ecosystems significantly since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
It's exceptionally unlikely - something like a 1pc chance - but we are now in relation to 2C where we were in 2015 in relation to 1.5C.
We are really very close now to having 1.5C years commonplace. This is a shocking situation and there is even a chance now of 2C.
It's the first time we have ever seen such an event on our computer models. It's still exceptionally unlikely but it's now possible.
Warming and impacts have accelerated faster than expected since the Paris Agreement in 2015.
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