The Cause Illusion

"Ever since our ancestors first stood upright and squinted at the horizon, we've been wired to notice patterns. A rustle in the grass might have meant a stalking predator. Dark clouds often meant rain. Those who made these connections and guessed that one thing caused another tended to survive. Over time, this ability to link events became one of our most significant evolutionary advantages. It's how we built tools, tamed fire, and eventually invented Wi-Fi."

"The instincts that kept us alive throughout history are also responsible for many of our problems. The brain can't help but view stimuli as ongoing threats and tries to find a source or reason, even when there's no valid connection. A seemingly obvious cause-and-effect relationship may merely represent a chance occurrence or a simple correlation that's been exaggerated into a narrative framework."

Human brains evolved to detect patterns and infer causation because doing so increased survival by enabling threat detection and problem solving. This tendency produces quick causal judgments even when only correlation exists. Mistaking correlation for causation can distort personal relationships, social narratives, and political debates by creating unfounded blame and simplified stories. Evolution favored error toward false positives in danger assessment, so causal bias persists despite modern environments where misattribution causes harm. Pausing before assigning blame, investigating correlational evidence, and distinguishing coincidence from causal mechanisms can reduce interpersonal conflict and improve political discourse.

Read at Psychology Today