"While some signs of recovery appeared earlier this year, those gains have not been sustained in the second quarter. The study based on anonymized internal account data found year-over-year drops in both city-to-city moves and moves within the same metro area. Declines were especially sharp for relocations within a single city. Despite the slowdown, some cities continue to attract new residents."
"But their share has slipped over the past year, while Baby Boomers and older generations have made up a slightly larger portion of relocations. One likely explanation is a softening job market. More than 40% of respondents to Bank of America's 2024 Homebuyer Insight Report said they were likely to move across states for job reasons a clear driver of longer-distance housing moves."
"A major factor is the lock-in effect homeowners holding mortgages with rates far below current levels, making them reluctant to sell and take on higher borrowing costs. Selling and resetting their mortgage would mean a significant rise in costs so they are choosing to sit tight instead, keeping supply depressed, the Institute said. The effect is most pronounced in the West, where a large share of households have sub-5% mortgage rates and many devote more than 30% of their income to housing payments."
Migration activity cooled in the second quarter, with year-over-year drops in both city-to-city moves and moves within the same metro, and especially sharp declines for relocations within single cities. Some metros such as Indianapolis, Columbus, Austin, and San Antonio continued to attract residents, while many Western and Northeastern metros, along with Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, recorded net outflows. Gen Z and Millennials still represent about half of cross-city moves but their share has declined while older generations rose somewhat. Labor-market weakness and limited existing-home supply, amplified by a mortgage lock-in effect, are constraining relocations.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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