"The assessment comes amid rising nuclear rhetoric between Moscow and Western governments over future security arrangements for Ukraine following the ongoing conflict. Analysts say Russian officials have amplified statements from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service to reinforce warnings about potential nuclear escalation. Particular diplomatic pressure appears to be directed at the UK and France, which are leading negotiations within the so-called Coalition of the Willing on potential security guarantees for Ukraine after hostilities end."
"The think tank suggests that Moscow could attempt to exploit, or even cause, a radiological incident for strategic narrative advantage. Analysts have highlighted some potential scenarios, including damage or disruption to Ukrainian nuclear energy infrastructure, which could threaten regional stability and require immediate attention. Russian forces have repeatedly been accused of striking Ukraine's energy system, including facilities connected to nuclear power generation."
"The Kremlin's messaging is believed to aim to create fear of confrontation between nuclear powers. The Kremlin wants to deter European states from offering long-term defence guarantees to Kyiv and encourage the US to limit support for European security initiatives."
The Institute for the Study of War warns that Russia may attempt false flag operations involving radiological incidents to exploit information campaigns weakening Western political and military support for Ukraine. Russian officials have amplified nuclear escalation rhetoric targeting UK and France, which lead security guarantee negotiations for Ukraine. Moscow aims to deter European states from offering long-term defense guarantees to Kyiv and limit US support for European security initiatives. Analysts suggest Russia could exploit or cause radiological incidents at Ukrainian nuclear infrastructure for strategic narrative advantage. Russian forces have repeatedly struck Ukraine's energy systems, including nuclear facilities, creating inherent radiological contamination risks. These security concerns have accelerated European discussions on independent strategic deterrence and collective security coordination.
#russia-false-flag-operations #nuclear-escalation-rhetoric #ukrainian-security-guarantees #radiological-incident-threats #information-warfare
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