Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank

"After slowing Russia's rate of advance over the past several months, Ukraine may have tipped the scales in April and recaptured more of its land than it lost, according to an analysis of battlefield positions. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said it had observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres (45 square miles) during the month. That figure counted only territory firmly held by each side, not what it called grey zones, where both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers held positions."

"Russian forces have been using infiltration tactics in part to create the perception of continuous Russian advances across the front and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes, the ISW said. Russian forces, however, do not control these infiltration areas. The ISW has observed a progressive slowing of the Russian rate of advance by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months."

"It found that Russian forces seized an average of 2.9sq km (1.1sq miles) a day in the first third of 2026, compared with an average of 9.76sq km (3.77sq miles) in the same period in 2025. Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritised capturing the remainder of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, which contains a fortress belt of heavily fortified cities, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka."

"Moscow has claimed to be gradually overrunning Konstiantynivka, but the ISW observed that it had infiltrated in 10.14 percent of Kostiantynivka and advanced in only 0.7 percent of its eastern outskirts. Ukraine also said Russia suffered higher casualties than its rate of recruitment could replenish for the fifth month running. In April, Ukraine claims more than 35,000 Russian soldiers were killed or seriously wounded."

Russian forces’ advance slowed over several months, with April showing a net loss of 116 square kilometres firmly held by each side. The calculation excluded grey zones where both sides held positions. Russian infiltration tactics were used to create the appearance of continuous advances and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare, but Russian forces did not control the infiltration areas. Over 18 months, the rate of advance fell by at least two-thirds, with daily gains dropping from 9.76 square kilometres in early 2025 to 2.9 square kilometres in early 2026. Russia increased assaults around the Donetsk fortress belt, while Ukraine reported higher casualties for a fifth consecutive month.

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