As the 2025 college football season approaches, the influx of player transfers shapes projections. This year, teams averaged over 19 transfers during the offseason, increasing by 40% from the previous year. Bill Connelly outlines how preseason projections hinge on three factors: returning production based on updated rosters, recent recruiting success, and historical program performance. The SP+ projections effectively measure college football efficiency in a predictive manner, not strictly serving as a ranking system, capturing the intricacies of team composition and performance potential.
In 93 days, it all starts again. From Week 0's Irish Farmageddon (Iowa State vs. Kansas State in Dublin) in mid-August to the national title game in late January, the 2025 college football season looms.
With transfer portal movement finally slowing down, FBS teams have averaged more than 19 transfers this offseason, up more than 40% from last season, allowing for a confident look at what's in store.
Preseason projections are based on three factors: returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history, with SP+ projections providing a predictive measure of efficiency in college football.
SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, intended to reflect sustainable football aspects, not acting as a resume ranking.
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