Dangerous Rogue Waves Aren't RandomThey're Predictable
Briefly

Dangerous Rogue Waves Aren't RandomThey're Predictable
"Under a hazy gray sky on the first day of 1995, the Draupner natural gas platform in the North Sea was struck by something that had long been relegated to maritime folklore: an 84-foot wall of water that hurled massive equipment across the deck and warped steel supports. The Draupner wave provided the first hard evidence that rogue waves were very real."
"A recent analysis of 27,505 North Sea wave measurements, recorded over 18 years by laser sensors on an oil and gas platform, reveals how ocean waves' quirky natural physics can produce a lone giant when multiple series (or trains) of waves intersect. The study, published in Scientific Reports, describes how this phenomenon can amplify a specific wave's height compared with that of its neighbors."
"If scientists can detect these signatures early, extreme waves may change from unpredictable terrors into forecastable hazards. Our civilization critically depends on shipping and offshore activities, and there is a massive international research effort aimed at understanding rogue waves, says Keele University physical oceanographer Victor Shrira, who was not involved in the study. Even the largest vessels and structures are not immune."
Twenty-seven thousand five hundred and five North Sea wave measurements recorded over 18 years by laser sensors on an oil and gas platform show that intersecting wave trains can produce a lone giant through constructive interference. Converging wave trains create a distinct repeating interference fingerprint in the wave data that amplifies a specific wave relative to its neighbors. Detecting that fingerprint early could enable forecasts of extreme waves and improve safety for shipping and offshore structures. The observations distinguish this mechanism from lab-generated modulational instability, indicating that oceanic rogue waves often arise from wave-train intersections.
Read at www.scientificamerican.com
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