"For a brief few weeks in early 2025, astronomers were worried about the asteroid 2024 YR4. Discovered in late 2024 by an automated telescope in Chile as part of the Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) sky survey, it's a not only a near-Earth asteroid but one that astronomers feared could get too close for comfort to our fair planet and pose a potential impact risk."
"Initial observations indicated the asteroid might hit Earth on December 22, 2032. Calculating the trajectory of an asteroid is tricky, and the further ahead the prediction goes, the fuzzier the numbers get. By mid-February 2025, astronomers had refined that Earth-impact probability to around 3 percent, which wasn't high but was still somewhat concerning. Happily, follow-up observations tightened the uncertainties in the projected orbit, effectively ruling out a late-2032 impact."
"They ruled out an Earth impact, that is. Amazingly, a chance remains that 2024 YR4 will hit the moon! As it stands now, the chance of a lunar impact on December 22, 2032, is actually higher than the mid-February probability of the asteroid hitting Earth on that date: about 4 percent. That's still small but not zero. If 2024 YR4 does whack into our lone natural satellite, what will happen?"
Automated ATLAS survey in Chile discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 in late 2024. The object measures roughly 60 meters in diameter and would not cause global destruction if it struck Earth, but an impact would release energy comparable to an eight-megaton bomb, producing considerable local damage. Early trajectory calculations suggested a possible Earth impact on December 22, 2032, with mid-February 2025 estimates around a 3 percent probability. Subsequent follow-up observations refined the orbit and effectively ruled out an Earth impact on that date, while indicating an approximately 4 percent chance of a lunar impact.
Read at www.scientificamerican.com
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