Scientist rule out a 2032 lunar impact for asteroid 2024 YR4

"Previous analyses had given the event a 4.3 percent chance, but refinements to measurements of its orbit by the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre and NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies have reduced the probability to 0.0 percent. Instead, the asteroid will pass the lunar surface at approximately 13,200 miles (21,200 km)."

"Using the new data, scientists were able to refine the orbit of 2024 YR4 further and calculated it won't create a new crater on the Moon in 2032. The observations by the JWST were among the faintest ever of an asteroid, according to NASA."

"An international team of astronomers identified two narrow opportunities in February 2026 in which they believed that Webb may be able to detect the faint speck against a sparse backdrop of stars whose positions are very well known thanks to the work of ESA's Gaia mission."

Asteroid 2024 YR4 will safely pass the Moon at approximately 13,200 miles distance on December 22, 2032, eliminating previous collision concerns. Initial estimates gave a 4.3 percent chance of lunar impact, but the European Space Agency and NASA refined orbital measurements using James Webb Space Telescope observations from February, reducing the probability to zero percent. The asteroid had previously posed a 1-in-100 Earth impact risk, which was subsequently ruled out. JWST captured among the faintest asteroid observations ever recorded, enabling precise orbital calculations. Additional observation opportunities are planned for February 2026 to further confirm the trajectory.

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