Large diversified technology firms include Microsoft, Amazon/AWS, Google/Alphabet and other possible incumbents such as Meta, Oracle, Apple, and IBM. Pure-play AI companies include OpenAI, Anthropic, and Perplexity. A very large number of smaller AI firms exist across numerous niches. Many smaller firms face high risk of disappearing through acquisition, merger, or shutdown. Some small firms can survive by delivering a needed service that no one else provides. Narrow-focus firms that target a tiny segment of a vertical, geography, or functional area such as supply chain have the best chance to persist.
Just like with 2000's dot-com implosion, it's the lengthy list of smaller players who are most at risk of going away. But even "going away" could take various forms, including being absorbed by a larger player, merging with other small players, or shutting down outright. As in the dot-com meltdown, some smaller players will likely survive, especially if they provide a needed service that no one else can deliver. A likely situation would be a firm that focuses exclusively on a very small segment of one vertical or geography - or maybe one functional area such as supply chain. If they are narrow enough, they could survive.
"With the small guys, there are some that do specialized stuff, such as genAI for legal or aerospace, where they deliver strong value for a very specific area," said Ricardo Carreon, the head of technology for Mexican retail chain Almacenes Distribuidores de la Frontera. "As long as they solve a narrow problem and that niche is valuable, they can be pretty successful."
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