"Overall, yes, 4Q25 delivery expectations are being revised lower. However, the reset in the US EV market is laying the groundwork for a more durable and attractive long-term demand environment. At the same time, EV penetration in emerging markets is accelerating, reinforcing Tesla's potential multi‑year growth runway beyond the US. Global progress in FSD and the anticipated rollout of a larger robotaxi fleet in 2026 are increasingly important components of the Tesla equity story and could provide sentiment tailwinds,"
"Gianarikas lowered his 4Q25 delivery estimates but pointed to several positive factors in the Tesla story. He noted that EV adoption in emerging markets is gaining pace, and progress in FSD and the Robotaxi rollout in 2026 represent major upside drivers. Further progress in the Optimus program next year could also add more momentum for the electric vehicle maker."
Tesla's price target was increased from $482 to $551 and the Buy rating was retained, citing improving long-term prospects driven by autonomy and robotics. Fourth-quarter 2025 delivery expectations were revised lower, while a US EV market reset is seen as establishing more durable long-term demand. EV penetration is accelerating in emerging markets, creating a multi-year growth runway beyond the US. Progress in Full Self-Driving and an anticipated larger robotaxi rollout in 2026 are identified as major upside drivers. Further advancement of the Optimus robotics program and the planned Cybercab production in Q2 2026 could add meaningful momentum.
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