London secondary schools numbers set to decline in similar scale to primary school crisis

"Mr Andrews warned that the capital's secondary-age population is due to peak this year and is levelling out. He said: We'll start to see that fall afterwards. Primary [pupil numbers] peaked in London in 2017/18, so you're going to be looking five, six, seven years after that when secondaries are going to follow that decline. We haven't really seen this affect too much in secondaries at the moment. I think we're in single-digit thousands in terms of the number of reductions but you're almost certainly going to get the same scale of falls in secondary schools."

"The expert pointed out that nine out of 10 areas that have seen the highest drop in pupil numbers across the country are in London, with eight of those local authorities being in inner London. Primary school pupil numbers have dropped around 9% in inner parts of the captial while outer London has seen a drop of around 4%, he added. However, some boroughs on the outer edges of the city have more stable numbers and Havering has bucked the trend, seeing the number of pupils increase 23% in the past decade."

"Mr Andrews pointed to the cost of living, availability of housing and families leaving the UK altogether as factors for the drop in pupil numbers before warning that the same problems that have faced primary schools will flow through to secondaries in the coming years. But the expert also pointed out that secondary schools may be able to weather the storm more. He highlighted that a secondary school cutting its year 7 size from eight forms to seven forms will not feel the drop as hard as a primary school with just one class in each year group."

London's secondary-age population is forecast to peak this year and then begin to decline, following an earlier peak in primary pupil numbers in 2017/18. Current secondary reductions are modest, but larger falls are likely five to seven years after the primary peak. Nine of the ten areas with the largest national pupil declines are in London, mostly inner boroughs, with inner London primaries down about 9% and outer London down about 4%. Contributing factors include cost of living, housing availability, and families leaving the UK. Some outer boroughs, such as Havering, have increased pupil numbers. Secondary schools may absorb reductions more easily due to larger year-group structures.

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