Andy Burnham faces perilous race to win Makerfield byelection, allies say

"The Greater Manchester mayor is likely to be confirmed as Labour's candidate for the north-west constituency later this week, but those close to him say he faces an uphill battle to beat Reform UK. Nigel Farage's party won more than 50% of the vote at the local elections and polling suggests Burnham is only marginally ahead. Reform is likely to focus heavily on immigration and Brexit over the next few weeks as it looks to exploit an escalating Labour row over whether the UK should seek to rejoin the EU."

"The outcome of the byelection is likely to determine not only the immediate political future of Keir Starmer, whom Burnham has pledged to challenge if elected, but also the viability of the Labour party as a whole. The prime minister spent the weekend at Chequers considering his political future, and allies say that despite his public defiance he is now willing to stand aside should Burnham win a clear mandate in Makerfield and no other challenger emerges."

"If he loses the byelection, it will leave Starmer in office but badly wounded by weeks of damaging attacks from his own MPs and without an obvious successor. One ally said: It's impossible to underscore how perilous this is. I would give Andy a 45% chance of winning, maybe a bit more than that. It's compelling to say tell progressive voters to vote for Andy to get Starmer out, but the flip side is you're saying to Reform voters that if they vote Reform they can finish the Labour party off for good."

Andy Burnham is preparing to fight the Makerfield byelection, expected to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the north-west seat. Allies warn he faces an uphill battle against Reform UK, which won over half the vote in local elections and is polling close to Burnham. Reform is expected to focus on immigration and Brexit, aiming to exploit a growing Labour dispute over whether the UK should seek to rejoin the EU. The byelection outcome is likely to shape Keir Starmer’s immediate political future and the long-term viability of Labour. Starmer has been considering his position, and allies say he may stand aside if Burnham wins with a clear mandate and no other challenger emerges. A loss would leave Starmer in office but weakened and without a clear successor.

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