Badenoch's thoughtful Conservatism' turns out to be just the slower road to Faragism | Rafael Behr

"British politics is starting to look post-Conservative. That isn't a forecast of extinction for Kemi Badenoch's party, just an observation of decline. Their agenda-setting days are behind them. Their loyal voters are old and they are not recruiting new ones. There is vigour on the right of the political spectrum, but the most energised people prefer burning things to conserving them."

"Is it terminal? Another way to ask the same question: if the Conservative party didn't exist, would there be any need to invent it? To answer yes is to locate a gap in the political market that Reform UK could never fill. The possible vacancy is defined by that depleted, demoralised band of one nation Tories who stand well to the right of Labour on economic issues but feel no cultural affinity with Farage's immigrant-baiting, culture-warrior radicalism."

"Conservative moderates are more numerous in the Lords than the Commons, but they're hardly assertive in either chamber. They see an opportunity for a sensible, centre-right party to advance on to terrain that will fall vacant if, as they expect, Keir Starmer is dragged leftwards by a rebellious Labour party that doesn't trust its leader's progressive instincts. The Liberal Democrats, not wanting to be outflanked on social conscientiousness, will drift with that tide."

British Conservatism has lost agenda-setting influence and faces demographic stagnation among loyal, elderly voters while failing to recruit younger supporters. The right flank energises itself toward radicalism and cultural confrontation, with Nigel Farage often serving as government antagonist in many areas. A depleted cohort of one-nation Tories remains economically conservative but rejects Farage-style cultural politics. Conservative moderates are numerically stronger in the Lords than the Commons and see an opening for a sensible, pro-enterprise, fiscally disciplined, mild-mannered centre-right party if Labour drifts left. The Liberal Democrats are likely to follow a socially conscientious trajectory, and business leaders privately express demand for a centre-facing Tory strategy.

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