Caerphilly result is blow to Labour and Reform and shows parties who cannot adapt will be crushed

"The idea that the full Senedd elections will result in Labour being supplanted by Plaid and Reform has long been heralded by polling, but here it was in stark voting figures: a Labour share of 46% when the seat was previously contested in 2021, now down to 11%; a consistent first place in the town since the Senedd was created in 1999 had tumbled to third."

"The slightly more hopeful lesson for the government, and for other parties facing Reform UK's rapid and seemingly inexorable rise, is that Nigel Farage's party can be beaten. Bookmakers had Reform's Llyr Powell as the favourite in Caerphilly yet Whittle secured a majority of nearly 4,000. There were two seeming factors to this: one was evidence of strong tactical voting from both sides, with the Conservatives squeezed to just 2% of the vote, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens below even this."

"You are on your way out after 100-plus years. Labour in Wales might or might not be a dying beast, as Whittle argued, but this one-off Senedd race illustrated how it was on course to lose its grip on Welsh politics in May, with potentially wider implications for Keir Starmer and his party."

Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly Senedd byelection with Lindsay Whittle securing a majority of nearly 4,000. Labour's vote share plunged from 46% in 2021 to about 11%, falling from a consistent first place since 1999 to third. Polling trends indicating Plaid and Reform gains were borne out in stark voting figures, raising concerns about Labour's position ahead of May elections and possible implications for Keir Starmer. Tactical voting played a significant role, squeezing the Conservatives to around 2% and depressing Liberal Democrat and Green support. The result shows both Labour vulnerability and that Reform UK can be beaten.

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