Green win shows progressive voters are now voting against Labour as well as Reform

"Labour simply refused to acknowledge it. Until very recently, No 10 strategy, as defined by Morgan McSweeney, was built around neglecting, even insulting, progressive voters, and seeking to win back defections to Reform. Come the next general election, so the argument went, progressives would sheepishly have to back Labour, just as leftwing voters in France got behind Emmanuel Macron when push came to shove."

"That plan has been shattered by the voters of Gorton and Denton. They chose not to get behind Labour when faced with the hardline populism of Matthew Goodwin, the Reform candidate. They backed the Greens instead. Even worse, Reform did at least show they could unify the right albeit in a constituency where the Conservatives had performed poorly in 2024. Labour ended up with a split left in which it was the smaller party."

"This risk was signposted for months. It is just the latest of the unintended consequences produced by this government: first, a manifesto commitment to not raise taxes that has led to constant U-turns on spending, then a clampdown on immigration that is creating shortages of medical staff, and now an attempt to stop Andy Burnham from challenging Keir Starmer that has super-charged an insurgent Green party."

Labour's defeat in the Gorton and Denton byelection revealed critical flaws in the government's strategy. The party pursued a deliberate approach of alienating progressive voters while attempting to win back Reform defectors, betting that leftist voters would eventually return to Labour by election day. This strategy, built on neglecting progressive causes and implementing hardline immigration policies, assumed voters would unite against Reform as a bogeyman. However, voters chose the Greens instead of Labour when confronted with Reform's populism. The result fractured the left vote, leaving Labour as the smaller party. This outcome represents one of several unintended consequences from government policies, including tax U-turns, medical staff shortages from immigration restrictions, and the Andy Burnham controversy that energized the Green party.

Read at www.theguardian.com